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Will you need hospitalisation if you get COVID-19 infection? This tool can predict that

Will you need hospitalisation if you get COVID-19 infection? This tool can predict that
COVID-19 has caused over one million deaths worldwide so far.

Researchers in Britain have developed a new application, called QCOVID, which can predict the risk of developing severe illness and complications after COVID-19 infection.

Written by Longjam Dineshwori |Updated : October 21, 2020 10:36 PM IST

Anyone can get infected with the COVID-19 virus, but it can hit harder on some people. While most infections are mild and require no special treatment, some patients suffer from severe complications and even death. The contagious disease has caused over one million deaths worldwide so far. Would not it be great if we have a tool that can predict who will get severely ill due to COVID-19 and need hospitalisation? Your wish has come true.

Researchers in Britain have developed a new application, called QCOVID, which can accurately predict the risk of Covid hospitalisation and death. In fact, the five percent of people in Britain identified by the tool to be at the highest risk from COVID-19 accounted for three-quarters of deaths during the first wave of the pandemic, the researchers claimed in a report published in BMJ, a medical journal Wednesday.

With the world grappling with a second wave of the disease, the new risk-assessment method could help identify the small percentage of the population most in need of being shielded from the virus, they noted.

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The tool is designed for use by clinicians to understand a patient's risk of serious illness due to Covid-19, they added.

The making of QCOVID

In order to develop the new tool, researchers from across Britain compiled data from six million patients, including age, height-weight ratio, ethnicity, and pre-existing conditions such as high blood pressure and diabetes which are known to increase the risk of developing severe illness and complications after infection.

It was tested on 2.2 million patients, including people who did not have COVID-19, during two time periods, late January to the end of April, and May 1 to June 30. To their surprise, more than three-quarters of people who died from the virus in Britain were among the top five percent of those identified by the tool to be at maximum risk. However, the tool did not identify which factors caused by fatal outcomes.

Mark Woolhouse, a professor of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, described the study as "a very striking result." He opined that the tool could help reduce the public health burden of Covid-19, by identifying the high-risk group and protecting them from the virus.

Major risk factors of COVID-19 complications

Elderly people and those with chronic health conditions like diabetes, heart disease, high blood pressure, lung problems, etc., are said to be at greater risk of developing COVID-19 complications.

A study published in the journal PLOS ONE also warned that current smokers and people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) also have a greater risk of suffering severe complications from COVID-19 infection and even death.

Obesity is another major risk factor for severe COVID-19 infection, even in those below 60 years. Doctors in the UK have warned that the majority of the COVID-19 patients who were admitted to the NHS intensive care units were overweight or obese. A study in France also reported that a large number of patients requiring mechanical ventilation were obese. Another study conducted in New York identified obesity as a prominent risk factor for severe COVID-19 infection.

With inputs from agencies