Written By: Longjam Dineshwori | Published : June 25, 2021 10:49 AM IST
Many experts around the world have been calling for a full investigation into the origins of the novel coronavirus, saying the future of public health is at stake.
The origin of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic still remains a mystery. The first confirmed case was identified in early December 2019 in China. However, growing evidence suggests that the original case may have emerged even earlier. For example, the results of a new analysis suggest that the first case of COVID-19 emerged between early October and mid-November 2019 in China, with November 17 being the most likely date of origin. The findings of this study were published in the open-access journal PLOS Pathogens.
To determine the exact timing of the onset of the pandemic, David Roberts of the University of Kent, U.K., and colleagues used a mathematical model originally developed to determine the date of extinction of a species, based on recorded sightings of the species. They repurposed the method to determine the most likely date of COVID-19 origin, studying some of the earliest known cases occurred in 203 countries.
The findings of their analysis support growing evidence that the pandemic occurred sooner and grew more rapidly than officially accepted. It suggests that the first case most likely occurred on November 17 in China, and the disease spread globally by January 2020. In addition, the researchers were able to identify when COVID-19 likely spread to the first five countries outside of China, as well as other continents. The analysis suggests:
The method they used was originally developed by Roberts and a colleague to date extinctions. The researchers believe that their novel method could be used to better understand the spread of other infectious diseases as well. "This novel application within the field of epidemiology offers a new opportunity to understand the emergence and spread of diseases as it only requires a small amount of data," Roberts was quoted as saying by ScienceDaily.
Many experts around the world have been calling for a full investigation into the origins of the novel coronavirus, saying the future of public health is at stake. Experts say knowing the origins of COVID-19 could help in understanding its continued spread and in preventing future pandemics. Peter Hotez, a professor of pediatrics and molecular virology and microbiology at Baylor College of Medicine and a leading expert on the virus, told NBC News in May that "unless we fully understand the origins of covid-19, there's going to be covid-26 and covid-32."
China's Wuhan Institute of Virology is believed to be the center of the outbreak. Many scientists believe that the virus most likely occurred in nature and jumped from animals to humans. But the hypothesis that COVID-19 leaked accidentally from a Chinese lab is not being dismissed either. On May 26, US President Joe Biden ordered a fresh 90-day intelligence review of the virus's origins with the goal of examining the possibility that it accidentally leaked from the Wuhan lab. American intelligence agencies have been asked to collect more information and review what they already have.
