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As India was witnessing a fall in the daily count of the novel coronavirus cases from across the country, after a huge surge earlier this year, experts have warned that the newly discovered Delta variant of COVID can lead to the third wave of coronavirus in Maharashtra. They added that the new wave may hit the state within 2-4 weeks. "The UK is facing a third wave within four weeks of ebbing of the second wave. We could be in the same situation if we don't stay vigilant and practice Covid-appropriate behaviour," Dr. Shashank Joshi, a member of the task force was quoted as saying.
A meeting with the Chief Minister of the state was held in Mumbai to take stock of preparations to tackle a possible third wave of COVID-19 in Maharashtra, the state worst hit by the pandemic. "The number of active patients could reach up to eight lakh, while 10 per cent out of them could be children," said the presentation made by the state health department, as per an official release.
The experts also warned that the total number of daily cases in the third wave is could become double that of those registered in the second wave. Active cases are predicted to reach 8 lakh. The health department said there were 19 lakh cases in the first wave (post-March 2020 outbreak), while in the second wave (which started around mid-February 2021) so far, more than 40 lakh infections had been registered in Maharashtra. "The Delta plus variant could stoke the third wave in Maharashtra. It could spread at double the rate," said an official during the presentation.
Thackeray asked officials to be prepared to deal with any situation in terms of the availability of medicines, beds, and other necessary resources. "If we do not follow COVID-19-appropriate behaviour, we would be hit by the third wave before we can fully recover from the second one," Thackeray was quoted as saying in the release at the meeting. "We have learned lessons from the first and second waves. We have been told that Maharashtra would get around 42 crore vaccine vials from August-September. The officials need to make all necessary preparations," he said.
In the first wave, the number of patients was highest at 3,01,752 on September 13, 2020, while it was 6,99,858 on April 22 this year during the second wave of COVID-19, the release said. The weekly positivity rate was 23.53 per cent on September 9, which was the highest in the first wave, and it reached 24.96 per cent on April 8 this year, officials said. The task force pointed out that in some EU countries, lockdown-like measures were re-introduced following a surge in cases. Earlier this week, scientists in New Delhi said the highly transmissible Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 has mutated further to form the 'Delta plus' or 'AY.1' variant, but there is no immediate cause for concern in India as its incidence in the country is still low.
The new Delta plus variant has been formed due to a mutation in the Delta or B.1.617.2 variant, first identified in India and one of the drivers of the deadly second wave. The mutation, according to scientists is in the spike protein of SARS-COV-2, which helps the virus enter and infect the human cells. This highly transmissible COVID-19 variant is called B.1.617.2.1 also known as AY.1 is characterized by the acquisition of K417N mutation.
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has classified the Delta, a highly transmissible COVID-19 variant first identified in India, as a "variant of concern." "The B.1.1.7 (Alpha), B.1.351 (Beta), P.1 (Gamma), B.1.427 (Epsilon), B.1.429 (Epsilon), and B.1.617.2 (Delta) variants circulating in the United States are classified as variants of concern. To date, no variants of high consequence have been identified in the United States," the CDC said in a statement on Tuesday. The CDC said the Delta variant shows increased transmissibility, potential reduction in neutralisation by some monoclonal antibody treatments under an emergency authorisation, and potential reduction in neutralization from sera after vaccination in lab tests.
Maharashtra's Covid-19 deaths remained in the higher ranges even as new infections also spurted to breach the 10,000 level, though the number of patients cured also increased. The Mumbai Circle - comprising Mumbai, Thane, Palghar, and Raigad districts - recorded a rise in new cases, from 1,971 to 2,330, to take its tally to 15,67,290 and with 56 more deaths, the toll rose to 30,990. Meanwhile, the number of people sent to home isolation stood at 878,781, while those in institutional quarantine were at 5,401.
(With inputs from Agencies)