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Written By: Editorial Team | Published : October 10, 2014 6:32 PM IST
With the rising cases of Ebola virus, Swiss researchers have come up with a new mathematical perspective to calculate the benchmark figures to describe the Ebola epidemic in West Africa. These results will be of great significance and may help the health officials to mange the epidemic. The researchers said, 'Our computer programme is completely ready. We can gain a detailed information related to the spread of the Ebola epidemic, if given access to current Ebola sequences.'
In the current Ebola epidemic, several estimates based on official data of recorded cases of illness were used to derive these figures. Using a statistical computer programme, a team led by Tanja Stadler, professor of computational evolution at ETH Zurich in Basel has now calculated these parameters based on the gene sequence of the virus in various patient samples.
'A major benefit of our method is that we can use it to calculate unreported cases and therefore the true scale of the epidemic,' asserted Stadler. The virus sequences were obtained from blood samples taken from patients in Sierra Leone in the first few weeks after the epidemic migrated to the country from neighbouring Guinea in May and June 2014. (Read: Ebola facts frequently asked questions (FAQ))
Using the data made available to them, the ETH researchers were able to calculate an unreported case rate of 30 percent (patients of which blood samples were not taken). 'However, this applies only to the situation analysed in Sierra Leone in May and June. We do not have any blood samples since June at all,' Stadler claimed. The researchers were also able to calculate the incubation period for Ebola (five days) and the infectious time.
Patients can pass on the virus from 1.2 to 7 days after becoming infected. To obtain these values, the researchers created a phylogenetic tree based on the gene sequences of the virus samples. 'The Ebola virus changes in the body of the patient from day to day, meaning that the virus sequence varies slightly from patient to patient,' Stadler explained. (Read: Ebola Facts: Top 7 myths busted)
With the knowledge of the different sequences, the researchers were able to determine at what point in the past infection events happened between patients. From this, they were able to calculate the epidemiological parameters. 'These epidemiological values are important in developing strategies to contain the epidemic and evaluate the effectiveness of these measures. Imposing a curfew is one such measure,' researchers pointed out. (Read: 10 reasons that make the Ebola virus deadly for humans)
How ebola virus is mutating rapidly?
A recent research related to the Ebola virus disease (EVD) states that the Ebola virus is rapidly mutating, making it difficult to diagnose and treat. A study conducted on the initial patients being infected with the virus in Sierra Leone revealed more than 400 genetic modifications of the Ebola virus, which might prove detrimental for the ongoing treatment measures but also to the vaccines that are under clinical trials for future treatment of the Ebola virus. (Read: Traditional healer responsible for bringing Ebola to Sierra Leone scientists)
The Researchers at the Broad Institute in Massachusetts and Harvard University warn that the Ebola virus is constantly undergoing mutation. The findings show that the future treatment options including vaccines as well as diagnosing of the disease will be very difficult and less effective as mutations will continue. As of now, the researchers have analysed around 99 Ebola viral genomes. Read more about Ebola virus is mutating rapidly say scientists
With inputs from IANS
Photo source: Getty images
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