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Written By: Editorial Team | Published : September 17, 2014 12:59 PM IST
A mathematical model which was supposed to predict the Ebola outbreak has now been ruled out to foretell its severity, reveals a new study titled Epidemiological Dynamics of Ebola Outbreaks by the University of Warwick. Dr Thomas House, of the University of Warwick's Mathematics Institute, developed the model that incorporated data from past outbreaks that successfully replicated their eventual scale.
According to House, the research showed that when applying the available data from the ongoing 2014 outbreak to the model now, it was 'out of all proportion' and on an unprecedented scale when compared to previous outbreaks. House stated that his team was able to analyse the data from past outbreaks and were able to design a model that works for the recorded cases of the virus spreading and successfully replicate their eventual size. However, the current outbreak does not fit this previous pattern and, as a result, they are not in a position to provide an accurate prediction of the current outbreak.
Chance events are an essential factor in the spread of Ebola like many other contagious diseases. They could include a person's location when they are most infectious, whether they are alone when ill, what the travel patterns are like of those with whom they come into contact with, or whether they are close to adequate medical assistance. The Warwick model successfully replicated the eventual scale of past outbreaks by analysing two key chance events; the initial number of people and the level of infectiousness once an epidemic was underway.
Discussing possible causes for the unprecedented nature of the current outbreak, House argued that there could be a range of factors that lead it to be on a different scale from previous cases; factors such as mutation of the virus, changes in social contact patterns, or some combination of the two with other factors.
Here's are some interesting facts about the Ebola virus that make it so deadly.
It can kill within seven days: Unlike other viruses (like HIV) that can remain dormant in a person for years without causing the disease, Ebola violently multiplies until the viral particles are amplified to about 100 million viral particles in a droplet of blood. Further, without resting in a dormant stage the virus kills the host to find a new one. The fatality rate of the disease is 60 percent.
Disrupts your immune system: Viral proteins present on the outer surface of the Ebola virus are what destroy the immune system. VP35, one of those proteins, interferes with the production of some important components of the human immune system, like interferons. Another protein traps the white blood cells inside the circulatory system by limiting their movement. As a response to the virus, whatever molecules the immune cells release are used by the virus to devastate the vascular system and activate blood clot formation.
We don't know where it came from: First of all, scientists have not been able to identify the original reservoir of the virus yet. Bats have been the suspected source but the results are inconclusive. Since a major part of its life cycle remains a mystery, the threat of its recurring outbreak will persist. Read more about 10 reasons that make the Ebola virus deadly for humans
With inputs from ANI
Photo source: Getty images
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