India May Not Face a China-Like COVID-19 Surge: Here Are 3 Reasons Why

India May Not Face a China-Like COVID-19 Surge: Here Are 3 Reasons Why
India May Not Face a China-Like COVID-19 Surge: Here Are 3 Reasons Why

India Vs China COVID-19 surge: No, India will probably not see the same COVID surge in the upcoming days as China is facing currently, here's why!

Written by Satata Karmakar |Updated : January 24, 2023 11:37 AM IST

It is more than a month now that China is facing a sudden surge in its daily COVID-19 cases. Over 80 per cent of China's total population is already infected by the virus infection, and more are getting infected daily. Seeing the deteriorating condition of the COVID situation in China, several countries, including India speculated that there will be another winter COVID wave which will drive a massive number of infection cases. However, this may not be the case. Weeks have passed, and still India is safe and reporting less number of cases daily, there are also no signs of any upcoming COVID surge. This is why experts are saying 'India may not face a China-like COVID situation'. Let us understand the concept and the analytics that went behind this thought and prediction by the experts.

Vaccine Efficacy: China Vs India

The first parameter that helped experts come to this conclusion was vaccine efficacy. As reports go by, 96 per cent of the COVID-19 vaccine that was administered in India are either Oxford/AstraZeneca formulated Covishield, manufactured by the Serum Institute of India, or Bharat Biotech's Covaxin.

Whereas, In China, people were administered CoronaVac. Studies say that both vaccines are effective against COVID infection, but CoronaVac provides less protection against severe infection in older people. According to the study, Coronaac offers up to 60 per cent protection against severe COVID infection among people aged 79, as compared to the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine's 76 per cent. CoronaVac which is the most used COVID vaccine in China has shown only 30% effectiveness in protecting people against severe disease, and 45% effective against death due to COVID, as compared to Oxford/AstraZneca's 67% and 85% respectively.

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India Has Faced The Worst Already

Apart from the vaccine front, India has another reason for not facing another COVID wave like China -- which is India's past experiences with COVID waves. Most of the people in India were infected by the deadliest variant of all -- 'Delta'. There have been just about 2 million cumulative COVID-19 cases reported in China until December 20th, against 45 million in India. What China is facing right now, is what India has already faced in the second wave, which was carried by the delta variant.

Omicron Variant Was Present In India Since July

The third reason why India may not see or witness a similar COVID-19 surge to China is that the variant that is driving the cases in China -- Omicron, was already present in the country since July 2022. This means India had the virus before it started wreaking havoc in China.

However, none of the above guarantees lifetime protection against the COVID surge in India. The virus has an immense power to mutate and form new variants that can defy and break vaccine-induced immunity, therefore to stay safe, proper precautions are to be taken by everyone.

COVID-19 viruses tend to change their genetic material from time to time, leading to the evolution of new strains -- with new and advanced symptoms. Apart from maintaining social distancing and wearing face masks, here are some ways to stay safe from the infection:

  1. Eat healthy. Adding well-balanced meals is important.
  2. Stay active and exercise regularly. Avoid strenuous workout routines when required.
  3. Avoid stepping out in crowded places unless important.
  4. Wash, or sanitize your hands before touching your mask and objects.
  5. Avoid being around sick people, or those who are showing symptoms of flu or COVID.
  6. Keep others safe by always covering your mouth while coughing or sneezing.
  7. Get yourself tested as and when any of the COVID symptoms appear.
  8. Get your booster dose if you have not taken it yet.