Govt Concerned Over The Rising Covid R-Value; What You Need To Know

The government has shown concerns over the rising reproductive value of Covid-19 in several states. Read on to know all about Covid R-value and why it means for India.

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Written By: Arushi Bidhuri | Updated : August 12, 2021 12:07 PM IST

Although the cases of Covid-19 in the country are stabilizing, there are rising concerns over the elevating R-value in some states amidst fears of a third wave. The R-value or the reproductive rate of the coronavirus has surpassed one in five states, as per the Union Health Ministry. The states that showed an increase in the R factor include Himachal Pradesh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Punjab and Uttar Pradesh. In the past seven days, Kerala has also reported more than half of the total Covid-19 cases recorded in India.

The Health Ministry provided statistics showing the national 'R' value crossing the 1.0-mark last month during a planned briefing on the Covid situation in the country; the previous time it did so was in March when it was 1.32, and that was before the second wave.

What Is Covid R-Value?

The R-value of Covid, or reproduction or reproductive number, is a means of rating Covid-19 or any other illness' ability to spread. The R number is also used to measure the growth rate and current cases. It has become a widely used measurement across the world, including in India. It is a scientific concept that refers to the average number of new infections created by a single infected person during the contamination period.

The pace of transmission is critical in indicating the rise and fall of a wave. It also showed the likelihood of a mutation, as the more transmission occurs, the more likely the virus is to change.

Why Is It Matter Of Concern?

As per a report by PTI, the R-value for coronavirus has increased for the country as told by experts from the Chennai-based Institute of Mathematical Sciences (IMSc). According to their research, it increased from 0.78 on June 30 to 0.88 in the first week of July.

As per the data produced by the healthy Ministry data, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Lakshadweep, Tamil Nadu, Mizoram, Karnataka, Puducherry and Kerala have high reproductive numbers. The reproductive value of Nagaland, Meghalaya, Haryana, Goa, Jharkhand, Delhi, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, and Maharashtra is 1.

What Does This Change In The R-Value Mean For India?

The report explains that from mid-May to late June, the R-value of India rose slightly to 0.88, after being at its lowest ever value of 0.78 (since the epidemic began in March last year). It indicates that every 100 infected persons will infect 88 additional people on average.

It is believed that the states with a higher R-value are showing an increasing trend, meaning more people are getting infected at a faster rate. Whereas, some states are showing a decreasing trend, which means that the transmission from one sick individual to another is becoming less effective. This is possible only when Covid appropriate behaviour is followed across states.

(with inputs from agencies)

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