Written By: Shraddha Rupavate | Updated : October 31, 2014 4:34 PM IST
As per the World Health Organisation's new report, the decrease in new Ebola cases in Liberia raises hope that the disease is slowing being contained, although still away from being under control. However, scientists at the Yale Schools of Public Health and Medicine and the Liberian Ministry of Health and Social Welfare suggest otherwise.
According to their study published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases, the number of deaths due to the disease will soon peak if the outbreak continues in the same way. The study based on a mathematical model predicts that Liberia could witness as high as 170,000 cases and 90,000 death cases by December 15 unless effective measures are taken to control the disease. The model designed by the researchers analysed Ebola transmission in Montserrado County based on gathered data of reported cases and deaths from the Ministry of Health in Liberia. The model takes into account the intricate patterns of disease transmission between healthy individuals, diagnosed patients and dead bodies. It also accounts for the current measure taken to combat the disease. Read: Quarantine for Ebola what is it?)
Although the study predictions appear to negate WHO's report released Wednesday, the lead author of the study Lewnard, mentions that the two need not necessarily be contradictory. He mentioned that the rate of growth could be slowing down as of now but it is most likely to sky rocket if control measures like arranging beds for patients and protective kits for their families are not deployed. (Read: 7 tips to prevent the spread of Ebola)
Fever: Increase in body temperature is the first defence mechanism that the body uses to kill any foreign particle invading the body. When Ebola infects the body, it causes a release of various compounds like cytokines and histamines that pass on the signals of increasing body temperature. In fact, Ebola virus disease is also called the Ebola haemorrhagic fever, where the temperature can go above 38.6 C or 101.5 F. (Read: What is the Ebola virus disease survival rate?)
Headache: It is the most common symptom of Ebola infection after fever, present in almost 96 percent of the cases. Nausea and headache along with fever present a typical case of common cold and flu. At this stage, the symptoms can be confused with other common infections. (Read: Ebola virus causes, symptoms, diagnosis, treatment, prognosis and prevention)
Stomach pain: A few viral particles invade the liver and starts destroying the hepatocytes. New virions start damaging the intestinal cells causing abdominal pain.
Photo source: Getty images
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