Arushi Bidhuri
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Written By: Arushi Bidhuri | Updated : February 1, 2021 11:31 AM IST
US COVID-19 model predicts new variants may increase coronavirus death toll: Report
Before the world could fully fathom the inner workings of the microscopic villain i.e. coronavirus, new variants of COVD-19 took over the world. The novel coronavirus, which has claimed millions of lives across the world within a year has undergone many mutations. The rapid spread of the new variant of coronavirus has put the world on a high alert. So far, four variants of the coronavirus have affected different parts of the world with uncertainties around the numbers and vaccines prepared to fight against the disease.
Against the backdrop, a new influential COVID-19 model has predicted a possible "spring spike" in coronavirus deaths in the United States if emerging variants rapidly spread and people let their guard down. Latest media reports suggest that B.1.351 variant first detected in South Africa and identified in the United States this week could drive the country's COVID-19 death toll up to 6,54,000 by May 1 in a worst-case scenario if mobility returns to pre-pandemic levels.
The latest forecast by the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) predicts that resurgence of the virus is likely to occur in the spring, in California and Florida, U.S. Christopher Murray, director of IHME, suggested that people continue to take precautionary measures to fight the pandemic, which is far from over.
IHME suspects that there is a possibility of a third wave next winter. With the aggravating problem, experts suggest that keeping mobility low and maintaining social distancing are essential measures that could reduce the number by approximately 30,000. Getting the COVID vaccine, and wearing masks are some of the best tools people need to keep transmission low and avoid the worst possible outcome, suggests specialists.
The South African variant, 501.Y.V2, was found on December 18, 2020. Previous studies have suggested that this particular strain is associated with a higher viral load, which means increased transmissibility. Before the predictions made by IHME, there was no evidence that the new variant causes much more serious illness for the people infected with the virus. But concerns over its rapid spread has been a part of the healthcare officials.
The new South African variant appears to be more infectious, which means that people need to be more stringent with COVID restrictions. While the new UK variant is unlikely to harm the effectiveness of current vaccines, studies suggest that there is a chance that the South African variant may do so to some extent since its more transmissible. However, more research is needed to know the effects for sure.
(with inputs from IANS)
