Written By: Longjam Dineshwori | Updated : July 15, 2020 11:42 PM IST
The greatest impact on HIV would result from disruption in supply of the antiretroviral Aids drugs.
While the world is busy tackling the Covid-19 pandemic, many countries are at risk of running out of the supply of medicines and other essential medical supplies for other diseases. The pandemic has also disrupted many health care programmes designed to control and treat many existing public health issues. A predictive study has warned that deaths from HIV, tuberculosis (TB) and malaria could surge in poor and middle-income countries, where the pandemic has severely disrupted the already weak health systems. The study predicted that over the next five years, deaths from these three diseases could increase by as much as 10 per cent, 20 per cent and 36 per cent respectively. This number would be similar to the direct impact of the coronavirus pandemic, it said.
The study titled "The Potential Impact of the COVID-19 Epidemic on HIV, TB and Malaria in Low- and Middle-Income Countries" was conducted by the Imperial College London's WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling within the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, and Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics.
Professor Timothy Hallett of Imperial College London who co-led the modelling study noted that even short-term disruptions could have devastating consequences in countries with a high malaria burden and large HIV and TB epidemics. He is also worried that the Covid-19 pandemic could undo some of the significant progress against these diseases made over the past two decades.
The study has been published in The Lancet Global Health journal.
According to Prof Hallett, countries should strive to maintain core health services and continue to deploy preventative measures against these diseases. Here are some key points highlighted in the study:
The greatest impact on HIV would result from a disruption in the supply of antiretroviral Aids drugs. These drugs are taken by most HIV patients to keep the disease in check. More than a third of the world's countries are said to be already at risk of running out of antiretrovirals.
With malaria, reduced prevention activities the largest impact would come from the disrupted distribution of insecticide-treated bed nets, the study noted. These nets are used by millions of people to prevent malaria-carrying mosquitoes from biting them.
For tuberculosis, the greatest impact would be from reductions in timely diagnosis and treatment of new cases, due to the prolonged period of COVID-19 suppression interventions
Some experts have also raised concerns that TB control programmes will be strained due to diversion of resources for COVID-19 management.
"Maintaining the most critical prevention activities and health-care services for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria could substantially reduce the overall impact of the COVID-19 pandemic," the study noted.
Usually, malaria preventive measures are taken ahead of the rainy season when the transmission is highest. But pre-monsoon preparation to deal with seasonal outbreaks like malaria, malaria, and leptospirosis took a back seat due to the COVID pandemic. Lockdowns and travel bans have also restricted movements of health workers, which disrupted the anti-malaria programmes in many countries.
The World Health Organization (WHO) has expressed fear that the number of deaths from malaria in Sub-Saharan Africa could double this year due to COVID-19 pandemic. The leaders in the region are being advised to step up mass vector campaigns, including insecticide-treated nets and indoor spraying while trying to minimize the spread of COVID-19.
