Covid-19 pandemic can be controlled by Feb-end: Govt-appointed panel

India has already crossed its Covid-19 peak in mid-September and if all the protocols are followed then the pandemic can be controlled by early next year, say experts.

India is the second worst-affected country from the coronavirus infection, after the United States. The number of Covid-19 cases in the country has crossed the 74-lakh-mark with over 1 lakh deaths reported so far. The good news is that the national recovery rate is improving significantly. On Sunday, the recovery rate crossed a little over 88%. India is also expected to have more than one Covid-19 vaccine by early next year. Union health minister Harsh Vardhan said last week that 40-50 crore doses of the Covid-19 vaccine could be provided to 20-25 crore people in the country by next July.

India has already crossed its Covid-19 peak in mid-September and if all the protocols are followed then the pandemic can be controlled by early next year with minimal active symptomatic infections by February-end, said a government-appointed committee.

The committee, headed by IIT professor M Vidyasagar, was constituted on June 1 to evolve a national supermodel for Covid-19 progression. The panel includes 10 eminent scientists and academicians in the country.

The benefits of imposing lockdown

In a study paper titled 'Progression of the Covid-19 pandemic in India: Prognosis and Lockdown Impacts', the experts noted that the initial coronavirus-induced lockdown saved a large number of lives and avoided creating widespread panic.

Without the lockdown, the pandemic would have hit India very hard with a peak load of over 1.40 crore cases arriving in June (that would be 15 times higher than the actual rate), they pointed out in the paper published in the Indian Journal of Medical Research.

But they also expressed concerns that the upcoming festival and winter season may increase the susceptibility to infection and highlighted the need to continue following the existing personal safety protocols in full measure.

Vidyasagar warned that relaxation in protective measures can lead to a significant rise, up to 26 lakh infections within a month. But there is no need for the imposition of fresh lockdowns on the district or state level to contain the spread of COVID-19 unless there is an imminent danger of healthcare facilities being overwhelmed, he stated.

All activities can be resumed provided proper safety protocols are followed, the committee added.

A poll-like system for vaccine distribution

To ensure speedy access to Covid-19 vaccines for every Indian citizen, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has suggested developing a delivery system that is on the lines of how elections are conducted in the country and disaster management work is conducted.

The Prime Minister on Saturday chaired a meeting to review the Covid-19 situation and the preparedness for vaccine delivery, distribution, and administration. He warned against any complacency before the deadly pandemic was brought under control, particularly during the festive season, and urged people to continue following the safety protocols.

As per a statement by the Prime Minister's Office, currently, three vaccines are in advanced stages of development in India, out of which two are in Phase II and one is in Phase-III.

Meanwhile, many are worried that mutations could make the virus more dangerous to humans and less effective to the potential vaccines. Here's a relief for India. A pan-India study by the Department of Biotechnology suggested that the A2a strain of SARS-CoV-2, which is the prominent novel coronavirus subtype found in the country, has not undergone any major mutation since June and there is no indication that the vaccine or diagnostics strategy would be hindered.

With inputs from agencies