Written By: Satata Karmakar | Updated : May 10, 2022 11:34 AM IST
When will the fourth wave of COVID-19 hit India? What will be the impact? Which variant will drive the new wave of the deadly virus infection? questions are mounting every single day, as India battles a sudden spike in cases. In the last 24 hours, India has logged a total of 2,288 new coronavirus infections. The country's total tally of COVID-19 cases now stands at 4,31,07,689. However, despite the sudden spike in coronavirus cases across the country, Prof Maninder Agarwal, from IIT Kanpur (IIT-K) who had developed the Sutra mathematical model to predict the trajectory of the Covid pandemic with great accuracy, has said that there may be no fourth wave in India.
Earlier this year, when the country saw a surge in cases suddenly after the uplifting of the restrictions, a team of researchers from IIT Kanpur had predicted that the fourth wave of COVID-19 will hit India in the month of June-July, and this wave will see its peak in the month of August and the cases will keep rising till September. However, in a recent development, Prof Maninder Agarwal, from IIT Kanpur (IIT-K) has stated that there will be no fourth wave of COVID-19 in the country. But why?
According to Professor Agarwal, the first reason why there will be no fourth wave in India is that the level of natural immunity in the country is strong enough to fight any further outbreak. What does natural immunity mean? Natural immunity is defined as the immunity that an individual acquires after recovering from a specific infection.
"As per the SUTRA model for India, over 90 per cent of India's population has acquired natural immunity. This is also validated by data from ICMR surveys that have consistently found the actual number of infected people to be more than 30 times the reported numbers", Agarwal said.
He further said that only a new and stronger than the previous strains can only drive the fourth wave in the country and as of now, there are none. "Genome sequencing has not shown any significantly new mutant present in the country. There are only a few variants which belong to the lineage of Omicron, these are - BA. 2, and BA. 2. 9, BA. 2. 10, and BA. 2. 12. This means that immunity acquired against Omicron will continue to hold against all these variants, which means no severity can be expected even if an individual is getting infected. "With more than 90 per cent of people in India already immune against Omicron, one does not expect any significant fourth wave," Agarwal is quoted as saying.
Professor Agarwal says that the sudden spike in cases in the country is majorly due to not following any restrictions. "All COVID restrictions have all been lifted in the country, and the new variants or sublineages of the Omicron are slightly more infectious. These two factors have contributed greatly to the faster spread of the virus among the non-immune population, which is why cases are increasing drastically. This increase is not likely to be substantial though," Agarwal is quoted as saying.
In order to stay safe from the deadly COVID infection, professor Agarwal says that one must get the vaccination as early as possible. Also, one should follow the basic safety protocols of the pandemic, which are - wearing a mask properly, keeping hands sanitized and maintaining social distancing.
(With inputs from agencies)
