COVID-19 cases soar in India: Why is there a sudden spike?

In a worrying scenario, India has seen nearly 12,000 deaths in just 97 days. The last couple of days have seen a massive surge in cases. Read on to know more.

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Written By: Jahnavi Sarma | Updated : June 17, 2020 3:41 PM IST

The COVID-19 pandemic continues to ravage the world. Though many nations are currently seeing a slow down in spread of the diseases as well as a fall in fatalities, the same is not the case with India, where cases are rising significantly on a daily basis. India's death toll from the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has exceeded the 10,000-mark after nearly 100 days since the first fatality was recorded in the country on March 12. On Tuesday, India saw 2,004 deaths. This includes the 1,672 backlogged fatalities, and 10,951 infections. This takes the toll to 11,919 from 353,853 infections.

India sees spike in cases

The country's case fatality rate (CFR), which is defined as the proportion of death to the total number of cases, rose from 2.9 per cent to 3.4 per cent. The death toll in India increased significantly after Delhi and Maharashtra took into account hundreds of fatalities that were pending review. Their toll went by 437 and 1,409 respectively. Maharashtra recorded 81 cases through the day to take its total death count to 5,537. Earlier the state had 113,445 COVID-19 cases and the new death numbers take its CFR to 4.9 per cent from 3.7 per cent a day earlier. Delhi too recorded 93 deaths in just 24 hours. Now, Delhi has 44,688 infections and the number of deaths stand at 1,837.

Almost 83 per cent of COVID-19 deaths in the country are from the five worst-hit states of Maharashtra, Gujarat, Delhi, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu. Along with the next five worst-hit states, more than 96 per cent of all deaths reported in India are from here.

Fatalities in India

While the first 5,000 fatalities happened over 80 days, the latest 5,000 deaths came in just 17 days. Of these, more than 2,500 were in the last week. However, on a positive note, though India is the fourth worst-hit country in the world in terms of total COVID-19 cases, its mortality rate is much better It stands on the eighth spot globally in terms of mortality rate. The country's death trajectory is also more gradual as compared to some other nations ravaged by the disease. India's CFR is at 14 per cent, which is much lower than the global average of 56 per cent.

Low testing rates may be behind surge in cases

According to many experts, this surge in COVID-19 positive cases could have been averted if India had adopted a more inclusive testing policy. Till now, testing here is still the lowest among the worst-hit countries. This was initially due to lack of testing kits. But a weak health infrastructure is also to blame here. Most private hospitals are ill-equipped to deal with the health crisis while beds are lying vacant in government hospitals, according to some reports. The mass movement of migrants following easing of lockdown restrictions may be another reason for this surge, say many experts. Moreover, many people are not really following the precautionary guidelines diligently, which again contributes to spread of disease.

What needs to be done

There is an urgent need to beef up health infrastructure in the country and conduct more tests, including on asymptomatic people who are silent carriers of the disease. People must be made aware of the nature of the disease. The authorities must also ensure that all precautionary methods are strictly followed and enforced.

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