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A fall in the temperatures and a relatively low humidity may facilitate spread of COVID-19.
Monsoon has added to the woes of the people amidst the coronavirus pandemic. Several states are bearing the brunt of the monsoon floods, which have left thousands of people homeless during this global health crisis. Will rains affect the spread of novel coronavirus disease? This is the concern many people have now. Amidst this fear, a study has suggested that a fall in the mercury levels will lead to the spike in COVID-19 cases.
The study, conducted jointly by researchers at IIT-Bhubaneswar and the AIIMS, predicted that the spread of COVID-19 will pick up pace during peak monsoon and winter. According to the researchers, the rainfall, decrease in temperatures and cooling of the atmosphere coupled with progression towards winter may environmentally favour the spread of COVID-19 in the country.
The study found that the rise in temperatures led to a decline in the transmission of the virus, said lead researcher V Vinoj, Assistant Professor of the School of Earth, Ocean and Climatic Sciences at IIT-Bhubaneswar.
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The study, which is in its pre-print stage, suggested that a one-degree-Celsius rise in temperature can lead to a 0.99 per cent decrease in cases and increase the doubling time by 1.13 days, implying a slowdown of the virus spread, Vinoj told PTI.
In addition, it found that an increase in relative humidity tends to decrease the growth rate and doubling time of coronavirus cases by 1.18 days.
Several studies have suggested that a fall in the temperatures and a relatively low humidity facilitated disease outbreaks in the past, noted Dr Bijayini Behera of the department of Microbiology at AIIMS Bhubaneswar, who was part of the research team.
The study also examined the impact of solar radiation on the spread of COVID-19. It found that a higher surface-reaching solar radiation led to a reduction in the number of infections and an increase in the doubling time of cases, similar to that of temperatures.
According to Vinoj, there is an average temperature difference of seven degrees Celsius between the winter and summer seasons. This means that there is a strong possibility of increased transmission of the coronavirus during winter. If this happens, health workers and policymakers will face a major challenge in enforcing mitigation and control measures.
The study aims to help authorities bring effective measures to combat the pandemic, Vinoj said.
India recorded more than 40,000 fresh Covid-19 infections on Sunday, marking the deadliest week of the Covid-19 pandemic so far during which 2.38 lakh cases were reported. As many as 673 deaths were recorded on Sunday from across the country, taking the week's toll to 4,285.
Overall, the number of Covid-19 cases in the country has jumped to 11,18,043 including 27,497 deaths, according to the latest data on the Union Health Ministry website. Globally, the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases has reached 14,043,176 and as many as 597,583 people have lost their lives to the contagious viral disease, reports the World Health Organization (WHO). India has the third highest number of Covid-19 cases in the world, after the US (3,544,143 confirmed cases and 137,674 deaths) and Brazil (2,046,328 confirmed cases and 77,851 deaths).
With inputs from agencies