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Coronavirus outbreak: 49-day lockdown necessary to prevent COVID-19 resurgence in India

The researchers suggest sustained periods of lockdown with periodic relaxation

The 21-day lockdown is unlikely to be effective and there will be a resurgence of COVID-19 at the end of it- say two Indian-origin researchers.

Written by Longjam Dineshwori |Published : March 29, 2020 5:15 PM IST

Taking a drastic step to break the Covid-19 infection cycle, India imposed a three-week nationwide lockdown starting March 24. While it is the need of the hour, the lockdown has brought life to a standstill in the country. Meanwhile, two researchers have asserted that this 21-day lockdown may not be sufficient to prevent the resurgence of COVID-19.

Ronojoy Adhikari and Rajesh Singh from the University of Cambridge are studying the impact of social distancing on the COVID-19 epidemic in India. They suggested a flat 49-day lockdown to prevent COVID-19 resurgence in India. Another way their new mathematical model suggest is sustained lockdown with periodic relaxation extending over two months.

They concluded that the three-week lockdown will be insufficient to stop COVID-19 resurgence in India. Their model suggests sustained periods of lockdown with periodic relaxation. They say this will reduce the number of cases to levels where individualised social contact tracing and quarantine may become feasible.

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Latest updates on coronavirus outbreak in India

According to the union health ministry website, there are 867 active COVID 2019 cases in India. As of March 29, the ministry recorded 86 Cured/discharged cases and 25 deaths.

On Saturday, India registered 179 fresh coronavirus cases, highest in a single day. There are also many coronavirus cases showing no traceable source of exposure. All these suggest the advent of community transmission of Covid-19. The community transmission stage (or stage 3) is when a disease spreads in the population is such a way that people don't know how they were exposed to the infection.

But experts from the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) say there is no enough evidence to say India in community transmission stage. Raman R Gangakhedkar, Head of Epidemiology and Communicable diseases at ICMR, also refuted the possibility of community transmission for the moment.

The medical body is changing the criteria for testing of coronavirus. Instead of random sample testing, India will start testing all patients with severe acute respiratory infections (SARI).

With inputs from IANS

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