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Winters Seasonality, Waning Immunity For Vaccinated People Reason Behind Rising Covid Cases
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), which is an independent global health research centre at the University of Washington speculates that the rising COVID-19 numbers in US, Europe could be due to winter seasonality, waning immunity for those vaccinated, decreased mask use and increased mobility levels.
According to IHME, the cases decrease that occurred in late August-early September for infections and then by mid-September for cases and deaths have practically halted, and we're starting to witness flattening and actual reversals at the global level. As per the report, Covid is not over, as some people seem to believe, and we expect to have to pay more attention to it in the next months, especially during the Northern Hemisphere winter. Many Western European countries, including the Netherlands and Denmark, as well as Germany and a number of other countries, are far ahead of the United States in terms of population growth, according to IHME.
The three things that are coming together in the Northern Hemisphere are causing the general pattern of rising numbers: Winter seasonality, diminishing immunity for individuals who were vaccinated fresh evidence that vaccine-derived immunity for protection against infection wanes significantly by six months means that many people in the Northern Hemisphere who were inoculated early are now likely susceptible to the disease. The third reason driving these winter increases is that people are far less careful than they were last winter, as mask use is far lower. It is currently below 40% in the United States, slightly higher than in Europe but significantly lower than a year ago.