South Korean Women. (Image: AI Generated)
Living beyond 90 years of age may soon become the norm for women in one country. According to a landmark study published in The Lancet researchers predict that women in South Korea will be the first national population to achieve an average life expectancy of more than 90 years.
The research published in February 2017 was conducted in partnership with the World Health Organization (WHO) and led by Professor Majid Ezzati from Imperial College London. Researchers applied an advanced forecasting technique called a Bayesian model ensemble to pool the forecasts of 21 different statistical models to estimate future life expectancy trends in 35 industrialised countries.
The study estimated that the life expectancy of women born in South Korea would be an average of 90.8 years in 2030. The researchers further estimated that about 57 per cent of South Korean women's life expectancy would exceed 90 years by 2030.
Remarkably the findings showed that the chances of South Korean women outliving the world's most recent record of 86.7 years are 90 per cent which is a number that has never been recorded globally at the time. Experts note that if this country reaches that goal then South Korea would beat traditional longevity leaders like France and Japan. The study estimated female life expectancy in Japan would be 88.4 years old by 2030 and 88.6 years old in France by 2030.
The researchers identified a number of reasons for South Korea's remarkable improvements in longevity. Other factors that have contributed to longer lives include improvements in childhood nutrition, universal healthcare access, low obesity prevalence, healthier blood pressure levels and having access to healthcare at similar rates across different income groups.
Since the late 1980s the National Health Insurance Service (NHIS) in South Korea has offered health insurance coverage for the entire population. Experts said the improvements in health have been widespread and not focused on higher income groups.
There are more living 84 year olds than 1 year olds in South Korea today. pic.twitter.com/ukQmusu4jt
molson (@Molson_Hart) January 5, 2025
The progress has been extraordinary! A team of scientists who led the study also uncovered that South Korean women born in 2030 will live 6.6 years longer than women born in 2010. The average life expectancy for South Korean women in 1985 was 73.4 years and by 2010 it had increased to 84.2 years. If these forecasts are correct the number of years may even increase to 90.8 years by 2030 adding about 17 years to the lifespan in just one generation.
Much of the improvement earlier has been related to the success of vaccination programmes, improved care for mothers and public health measures for infectious diseases. More recent improvements have been made in postponing death from chronic diseases like heart disease, stroke, cancer, diabetes and dementia.
For years many researchers thought that the average life expectancy of the nation shouldn't surpass 90 years. As per the National Institute of Health (NIH) Some of the reasons behind this motive are that having a longer lifespan has implications for health care systems, retirement planning, elder care and social policy. As a large population reaches the age of 90 there is a need for more resources to invest in healthy ageing, medical facilities and long term care.
But the 2015 study has called that assumption into question stating the barrier is on the verge of being breached. In 2024 South Korea's women already had a life expectancy of around 86.7 years according to data from the World Health Organization (WHO) making the nation one of the longest lived in the world. The 90 year target by 2030 is yet to be determined but researchers predict that South Korea is most likely to do so.
Disclaimer: Life expectancy projections are based on population level research and trends. Individual lifespan varies due to genetics, lifestyle, healthcare access, environment and socioeconomic factors.
